Integral transition models

Work package 10: Integral model

Do you want to work on Integral transition models?

Would you like to design the transition scenarios for the Netherlands? This is not only an interesting puzzle but also something that entrepeneurs, politicians and policy makers are highly interested in. You could really make a difference.

Work package 10: Integral model

Objectives

  1. Develop a methodology turns the inputs of an interdisciplinary set of stakeholders in energy and
    mobility into integral, quantified and potentially disruptive scenarios.
  2. Develop a methodology that allows an interdisciplinary set of stakeholders in energy and mobility
    to jointly explore the most interesting/disruptive interventions.
  3. Create a tool that brings the work packages together in interdisciplinary cooperation.
  4. Find scenarios that can successfully Dutch address energy, mobility and climate challenges.
  5. Give insight in the business case and potential market share of individual technologies.

Activities

  1. Creating a modelling fundament:
    a. Software environment: training; wiki; online server; collaborative environment; etc.
    b. Shared modelling values: definitions; taxonomies; naming conventions; coding guidelines;
    main agents and behaviors; interfaces; ways to modularize and co-simulate; etc.
    c. Low level data like maps; demographic data; initial mobility patterns; road congestion
    parameters, initial energy supply and demand, grid loads, etc.
  2. Creating ‘digital twins’:
    a. Choosing and modelling representative neighborhoods in cooperation with stakeholders.
    Here individuals and machines travel and use energy and individual behavior is explored.
    b. Choosing and modelling representative regions. This aggregates neighborhoods.
    c. Modelling the global landscape: technological change; policy; energy interfaces (e.g. grid
    interconnections and hydrogen pipelines); mobility interfaces (e.g. import/export).
    d. Modelling the Netherlands as an aggregation of regions in the global landscape.
    e. Creating energy and mobility systems in neighborhoods, regions and the Netherlands.
  3. Modelling and exploring transformative energy scenarios. For example: cost-effectiveness of
    different renewable subsidies; impact of breakthroughs in airborne wind, BIPV, (flow) batteries or
    hydrogen; using smart or even bidirectional charging to stabilize a grid with lots of wind and solar.
  4. Modelling and exploring transformative mobility scenarios. For example: how MaaS can lead to
    both more and less congestion and CO2 emissions; smart hubs; integrating personal transport and
    freight; impact of the availability of fast (MV) chargers on truck adoption and grid load.

Expected output

  1. At least 24 journal papers describing transformative energy and mobility scenarios, most coauthored
    with other work packages (M12x3,4×7,36×8,48×6).
  2. At least 8 journal papers on methodology, describing the modelling approach and effect of creating
    scenarios in interdisciplinary teams (M12x2,24×4,36×1,48×1).
  3. At least 25 conference papers. Most co-authored with other WPs (M12x5,24×15,36×10).
  4. Digital twins of at least: 5 representative neighborhoods (living labs); 3 representative regions;
    the Netherlands as a whole; and the global landscape impacting the Netherlands.
  5. Environment in which all members of NEON and external participants can contribute code.
  6. Online model versions that anybody can experiment with containing the annual outlook scenarios.
  7. At least ten workshops in which scenarios are explored with NEON stakeholders interactively.
  8. At least ten in depth scenarios every year (depth and sophistication gradually increasing) published
    in the annual outlook report and coauthored with the relevant WPs (M12,24,36,48).
  9. At least 5 PhDs will have spend more than 3 months abroad with knowledge institutions.
  10. At least 8 PhDs from abroad hosted by NEON.
  11. At least 100 mentions of NEON scenarios in national newspapers or on television.